Recently, Google opened up its Flood Forecasting Initiative that uses Artificial Intelligence to predict when and where flood will occur for India and Bangladesh. They worked with governments to develop systems that predict flood and thus keep people safe and informed.
Google now covers 200 million people living in more than 250,000 square kilometers in India.
This topic was also touched upon in the Decode with Google event last week.
Floods are devastating natural disasters worldwide—it’s estimated that every year, 250 million people around the world are affected by floods, causing around $10 billion in damages.
The plan was to use AI and create forecasting models based on:
historical events
river level readings
terrain and elevation of an area
An inside look at the flood forecasting was published here that covers: 1. The Inundation Model 2. Real time water level measurements 3. Elevation Map creation 4. Hydraulic modeling
Recent Improvements
The new approach devised for inundation modeling is called a morphological inundation model. It combines physics-based modeling with machine learning to create more accurate and scalable inundation models in real-world settings.
This new forecasting system covers: 1. Forecasting Water Levels 2. Morphological Inundation Modeling 3. Alert targeting 4. Improved Water Levels Forecasting
Have a read of the following blog for full details.
Current State
As shared here, they partnered with Indian Central Water Commission to expand forecasting models and services. For research, they have collaborated with Yale to visit flood affected areas. This helps them to understand how to provide information and what information would people need to protect themselves.
We’re providing people with information about flood depth: when and how much flood waters are likely to rise. And in areas where we can produce depth maps throughout the floodplain, we’re sharing information about depth in the user’s village or area.
While working on a machine learning problem, Matplotlib is the most popular python library used for visualization that helps in representing & analyzing the data and work through insights.
Generally, it’s difficult to interpret much about data, just by looking at it. But, a presentation of the data in any visual form, helps a great deal to peek into it. It becomes easy to deduce correlations, identify patterns & parameters of importance.
In data science world, data visualization plays an important role around data pre-processing stage. It helps in picking appropriate features and apply appropriate machine learning algorithm. Later, it helps in representing the data in a meaningful way.
Data Insights via various plots
If needed, we will use these dataset for plot examples and discussions. Based on the need, following are the common plots that are used:
Line Chart | ax.plot(x,y)
It helps in representing series of data points against a given range of defined parameter. Real benefit is to plot multiple line charts in a single plot to compare and track changes.
Points next to each other are related that helps to identify repeated or a defined pattern
With the above, we have couple of quick assessments: Q: How a particular stock fared over last year? A: Stocks were roughly rising till Feb 2020 and then took a dip in April and then back up since then.
Q: How the three stocks behaved during the same period? A: Stock price of ADBE was more sensitive and AAPL being least sensitive to the change during the same period.
Histogram | ax.hist(data, n_bins)
It helps in showing distributions of variables where it plots quantitative data with range of the data grouped into intervals.
We can use Log scale if the data range is across several orders of magnitude.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
mean = [0, 0]
cov = [[2,4], [5, 9]]
xn, yn = np.random.multivariate_normal(
mean, cov, 100).T
plt.hist(xn,bins=25,label="Distribution on x-axis");
plt.xlabel('x')
plt.ylabel('frequency')
plt.grid(True)
plt.legend()
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Indian Census data downloaded from here.
With the above, couple of quick assessments about population in states of India: Q: What’s the general population distribution of states in India? A: More than 50% of states have population less than 2 crores (20 million)
Q: How many states are having population more than 10 crores (100 million)? A: Only 3 states have that high a population.
Bar Chart | ax.bar(x_pos, heights)
It helps in comparing two or more variables by displaying values associated with categorical data.
Most commonly used plot in Media sharing data around surveys displaying every data sample.
With the above, couple of quick assessments about population in states of India: – Uttar Pradesh has the highest total population and Lakshadeep has lowest – Relative popluation across states with Uttar Pradesh almost double the second most populated state
Pie Chart | ax.pie(sizes, labels=[labels])
It helps in showing the percentage (or proportional) distribution of categories at a certain point of time. Usually, it works well if it’s limited to single digit categories.
A circular statistical graphic where the arc length of each slice is proportional to the quantity it represents.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# Slices will be ordered n plotted counter-clockwise
labels = ['Audi','BMW','LandRover','Tesla','Ferrari']
sizes = [90, 70, 35, 20, 25]
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.pie(sizes,labels=labels, autopct='%1.1f%%')
ax.set_title('Car Sales')
plt.show()
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Alcohol Consumption downloaded from here.
With the above, we can have a quick assessment that alcohol consumption is distributed overall. This view helps if we have less number of slices (categories).
Scatter plot | ax.scatter(x_points, y_points)
It helps representing paired numerical data either to compare how one variable is affected by another or to see how multiple dependent variables value is spread for each value of independent variable.
Sometimes the data points in a scatter plot form distinct groups and are called as clusters.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# random but focused cluster data
x1 = np.random.randn(100) + 8
y1 = np.random.randn(100) + 8
x2 = np.random.randn(100) + 3
y2 = np.random.randn(100) + 3
x = np.append(x1,x2)
y = np.append(y1,y2)
plt.scatter(x,y, label="xy distribution")
plt.legend()
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Alcohol Consumption downloaded from here.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
drinksdf = pd.read_csv('data-files/drinks.csv',
skiprows=1,
names = ['country', 'beer', 'spirit',
'wine', 'alcohol', 'continent'])
drinksdf['total'] = drinksdf['beer']
+ drinksdf['spirit']
+ drinksdf['wine']
+ drinksdf['alcohol']
# drinksdf.corr() tells beer and alcochol
# are highly corelated
fig = plt.figure()
# Compare beet and alcohol consumption
# Use color to show a third variable.
# Can also use size (s) to show a third variable.
scat = plt.scatter(drinksdf['beer'],
drinksdf['alcohol'],
c=drinksdf['total'],
cmap=plt.cm.rainbow)
# colorbar to explain the color scheme
fig.colorbar(scat, label='Total drinks')
plt.xlabel('Beer')
plt.ylabel('Alcohol')
plt.title('Comparing beer and alcohol consumption')
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()
With the above, we can have a quick assessment that beer and alcohol consumption have strong positive correlation which would suggest a large overlap of people who drink beer and alcohol.
2. We will work with dataset of Mall Customers downloaded from here.
With the above, we can have a quick assessment that there are five clusters there and thus five segments or types of customers one can make plan for.
Box Plot | ax.boxplot([data list])
A statistical plot that helps in comparing distributions of variables because the center, spread and range are immediately visible. It only shows the summary statistics like mean, median and interquartile range.
Easy to identify if data is symmetrical, how tightly it is grouped, and if and how data is skewed
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# some random data
data1 = np.random.normal(0, 2, 100)
data2 = np.random.normal(0, 4, 100)
data3 = np.random.normal(0, 3, 100)
data4 = np.random.normal(0, 5, 100)
data = list([data1, data2, data3, data4])
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
bx = ax.boxplot(data, patch_artist=True)
ax.set_title('Box Plot Sample')
ax.set_ylabel('Spread')
xticklabels=['category A',
'category B',
'category B',
'category D']
colors = ['pink','lightblue','lightgreen','yellow']
for patch, color in zip(bx['boxes'], colors):
patch.set_facecolor(color)
ax.set_xticklabels(xticklabels)
ax.yaxis.grid(True)
plt.show()
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Tips downloaded from here.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
tipsdf = pd.read_csv('data-files/tips.csv')
sns.boxplot(x="time", y="tip",
hue='sex', data=tipsdf,
order=["Dinner", "Lunch"],
palette='coolwarm')
With the above, we can have a quick couple of assessments: – male gender gives more tip compared to females – tips during dinner time can vary a lot (more) by males mean tip
Violen Plot | ax.violinplot([data list])
A statistical plot that helps in comparing distributions of variables because the center, spread and range are immediately visible. It shows the full distribution of data.
A quick way to compare distributions across multiple variables
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
data = [np.random.normal(0, std, size=100)
for std in range(2, 6)]
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
bx = ax.violinplot(data)
ax.set_title('Violin Plot Sample')
ax.set_ylabel('Spread')
xticklabels=['category A',
'category B',
'category B',
'category D']
ax.set_xticks([1,2,3,4])
ax.set_xticklabels(xticklabels)
ax.yaxis.grid(True)
plt.show()
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Tips downloaded from here.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
tipsdf = pd.read_csv('data-files/tips.csv')
sns.violinplot(x="day", y="tip",
split="True", data=tipsdf)
With the above, we can have a quick assessment that the tips on Saturday has more relaxed distribution whereas Friday has much narrow distribution in comparison.
2. We will work with dataset of Indian Census data downloaded from here.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
populationdf = pd.read_csv(
"./data-files/census-population.csv")
mask1 = populationdf['Level']=='DISTRICT'
mask2 = populationdf['TRU']!='Total'
statesdf = populationdf[mask1 & mask2]
maskUP = statesdf['State']==9
maskM = statesdf['State']==27
data = statesdf.loc[maskUP | maskM]
sns.violinplot( x='State', y='P_06',
inner='quartile', hue='TRU',
palette={'Rural':'green','Urban':'blue'},
scale='count', split=True,
data=data, size=6)
plt.title('In districts of UP and Maharashtra')
plt.show()
With the above, we can have couple of quick assessments: – Uttar Pradesh has high volume and distribution of rural child population. – Maharashtra has almost equal spread of rural and urban child population
Heatmap
It helps in representing a 2-D matrix form of data using variation of color for different values. Variation of color maybe hue or intensity.
Generally used to visualize correlation matrix which in turn helps in features (variables) selection.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
# create 2D array
array_2d = np.random.rand(4, 6)
sns.heatmap(array_2d, annot=True)
Real world example
We will work with dataset of Alcohol Consumption downloaded from here.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
drinksdf = pd.read_csv('data-files/drinks.csv',
skiprows=1,
names = ['country', 'beer', 'spirit',
'wine', 'alcohol', 'continent'])
sns.heatmap(drinksdf.corr(),annot=True,cmap='YlGnBu')
With the above, we can have a quick couple of assessments: – there is a strong correlation between beer and alcohol and thus a strong overlap there. – wine and spirit are almost not correlated and thus it would be rare to have a place where wine and spirit consumption equally high. One would be preferred over other.
If we notice, upper and lower halves along the diagonal are same. Correlation of A is to B is same as B is to A. Further, A correlation with A will always be 1. Such case, we can make a small tweak to make it more presentable and avoid any correlation confusion.
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
drinksdf = pd.read_csv(
'data-files/drinks.csv',
skiprows=1,
names = ['country', 'beer', 'spirit',
'wine', 'alcohol', 'continent'])
# correlation and masks
drinks_cr = drinksdf.corr()
drinks_mask = np.triu(drinks_cr)
# remove the last ones on both axes
drinks_cr = drinks_cr.iloc[1:,:-1]
drinks_mask = drinks_mask[1:, :-1]
sns.heatmap(drinks_cr,
mask=drinks_mask,
annot=True,
cmap='coolwarm')
It is the same correlation data but just the needed one is represented.
Data Image
It helps in displaying data as an image, i.e. on a 2D regular raster.
Images are internally just arrays. Any 2D numpy array can be displayed as an image.
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
M,N = 25,30
data = np.random.random((M,N))
plt.imshow(data)
Real world example
Let’s read an image and then try to display it back to see how it looks
It read the image as an array of matrix and then drew it as plot that turned to be same as the image. Since, images are like any other plots, we can plot other objects (like annotations) on top of it.
Generally, it is used in comparing multiple variables (in pairs) against each other. With multiple plots stacked against each other in the same figure, it helps in quick assessment for correlation and distribution for a pair.
Parameters are: number of rows, number of columns, the index of the subplot
(Index are counted row wise starting with 1)
The widths of the different subplots may be different with use of GridSpec.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import math
# data setup
x = np.arange(1, 100, 5)
y1 = x**2
y2 = 2*x+4
y3 = [ math.sqrt(i) for i in x]
y4 = [ math.log(j) for j in x]
fig, ((ax1, ax2), (ax3, ax4)) = plt.subplots(2, 2)
ax1.plot(x, y1)
ax1.set_title('f(x) = quadratic')
ax1.grid()
ax2.plot(x, y2)
ax2.set_title('f(x) = linear')
ax2.grid()
ax3.plot(x, y3)
ax3.set_title('f(x) = sqareroot')
ax3.grid()
ax4.plot(x, y4)
ax4.set_title('f(x) = log')
ax4.grid()
fig.tight_layout()
plt.show()
We can stack up m x n view of the variables and have a quick look on how they are correlated. With the above, we can quickly assess that second graph parameters are linearly correlated.
Data Representation
Plot Anatomy
Below picture will help with plots terminology and representation:
Credit: matplotlib.org
Figure above is the base space where the entire plot happens. Most of the parameters can be customized for better representation. For specific details, look here.
Plot annotations
It helps in highlighting few key findings or indicators on a plot. For advanced annotations, look here.
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# A simple parabolic data
x = np.arange(-4, 4, 0.02)
y = x**2
# Setup plot with data
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
ax.plot(x, y)
# Setup axes
ax.set_xlim(-4,4)
ax.set_ylim(-1,8)
# Visual titles
ax.set_title('Annotation Sample')
ax.set_xlabel('X-values')
ax.set_ylabel('Parabolic values')
# Annotation
# 1. Highlighting specific data on the x,y data
ax.annotate('local minima of \n the parabola',
xy=(0, 0),
xycoords='data',
xytext=(2, 3),
arrowprops=
dict(facecolor='red', shrink=0.04),
horizontalalignment='left',
verticalalignment='top')
# 2. Highlighting specific data on the x/y axis
bbox_yproperties = dict(
boxstyle="round,pad=0.4", fc="w", ec="k", lw=2)
ax.annotate('Covers 70% of y-plot range',
xy=(0, 0.7),
xycoords='axes fraction',
xytext=(0.2, 0.7),
bbox=bbox_yproperties,
arrowprops=
dict(facecolor='green', shrink=0.04),
horizontalalignment='left',
verticalalignment='center')
bbox_xproperties = dict(
boxstyle="round,pad=0.4", fc="w", ec="k", lw=2)
ax.annotate('Covers 40% of x-plot range',
xy=(0.3, 0),
xycoords='axes fraction',
xytext=(0.1, 0.4),
bbox=bbox_xproperties,
arrowprops=
dict(facecolor='blue', shrink=0.04),
horizontalalignment='left',
verticalalignment='center')
plt.show()
Plot style | plt.style.use('style')
It helps in customizing representation of a plot, like color, fonts, line thickness, etc. Default styles get applied if the customization is not defined. Apart from adhoc customization, we can also choose one of the already defined template styles and apply them.
# To know all existing styles with package
for style in plt.style.available:
print(style)
# To use a defined style for plot
plt.style.use('seaborn')
# OR
with plt.style.context('Solarize_Light2'):
plt.plot(np.sin(np.linspace(0, 2 * np.pi)), 'r-o')
plt.show()
Saving plots | ax.savefig()
It helps in saving figure with plot as an image file of defined parameters. Parameters details are here. It will save the image file to the current directory by default.
It helps in filling missing data with some reasonable data as many statistical or machine learning packages do not work with data containing null values.
Data interpolation can be defined to use pre-defined functions such as linear, quadratic or cubic
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
df = pd.DataFrame(np.random.randn(20,1))
df = df.where(df<0.5)
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2)
ax1.plot(df)
ax1.set_title('f(x) = data missing')
ax1.grid()
ax2.plot(df.interpolate())
ax2.set_title('f(x) = data interpolated')
ax2.grid()
fig.tight_layout()
plt.show()
With the above, we see all the missing data replaced with some probably interpolation supported by dataframe based on valid previous and next data.
Animation
At times, it helps in presenting the data as an animation. On a high level, it would need data to be plugged in a loop with delta changes translating into a moving view.
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from matplotlib import animation
fig = plt.figure()
def f(x, y):
return np.sin(x) + np.cos(y)
x = np.linspace(0, 2 * np.pi, 80)
y = np.linspace(0, 2 * np.pi, 70).reshape(-1, 1)
im = plt.imshow(f(x, y), animated=True)
def updatefig(*args):
global x, y
x += np.pi / 5.
y += np.pi / 10.
im.set_array(f(x, y))
return im,
ani = animation.FuncAnimation(
fig, updatefig, interval=100, blit=True)
plt.show()
3-D Plotting
If needed, we can also have an interactive 3-D plot though it might be slow with large datasets.
Transcribe converts speech (recorded directly in Word or from an uploaded audio file) to a text transcript with each speaker individually separated.
We can record our conversations directly in Word for the web and it transcribes them automatically with each speaker identified separately. Transcript will appear alongside the Word document, along with the recording.
For now, English (EN-US) is the only language supported for transcribe audio
Once the recording is finished, we can:
easily follow the flow of the transcript
revisit parts of the recording by playing back the time-stamped audio
edit the transcript for any corrections or if we see something amiss
save the full transcript as a Word document
How to use it?
Transcribe in Word is already available in Word for the web for all Microsoft 365 subscribers. Usage wise, it is completely unlimited to record and transcribe within Word for the Web.
There is a five hour limit per month for uploaded recordings and each uploaded recording is limited to 200mb.
Credit: Microsoft
Real life applications …
It has multiple values in different aspects of usage:
would be much easier to concentrate in meetings & discussions if doing multitask affects (taking notes during discussion)
provide important quotes with others in quick time
summarize the meeting based on key topics identified
Minutes of meetings
Key notes
opens up potential for NLP world (AI) in future
access patterns particular speakers on how they speak, use specific words, provide feedback
access questions and their response, act specifically
improve auto corrections
Wrap Up
Seems like a nice move by Microsoft, to cover more than one aspect where it can help. Worth a feature to try out and see how it works and helps.
This is to get started with pandas and try few concrete examples. pandas is a Python based library that helps in reading, transforming, cleaning and analyzing data. It is built on the NumPy package.
pandas is a fast, powerful, flexible and easy to use open source data analysis and manipulation tool, built on top of the Python programming language.
https://pandas.pydata.org
Key data structure in pandas is called DataFrame – it helps to work with tabular data translated as rows of observations and columns of features.
While reading for AI/ML (Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning), I came across a discussion – if Python can be used as a “statistics workbench” to replace R, SPSS, etc? It was nice shareout by multiple knowledge folks related to languages used for problems of statistics, specifically R (read about R here).
For quick reference, I will quote few of the latest thoughts from there that are in favor of Python and how it has evolved. I too conquer with most of them:
1. Python is easily the most intuitive syntax of any programming language. This makes for extremely fast development time.
2. Python is performant. It opens large datasets reliably.
3. The packages in Python are fast catching up to R’s packages. Python usage has increased tremendously last few years.
4. Readability is one of the most important qualities good code can possess, and Python is one of the most readable language.
Overall, Python is a general purpose language with an easy to understand syntax which would be relatively easier for usual programmers to learn/adopt. R is developed keeping statisticians in mind. Thus it has many features around data visualization and is a tad ahead currently.
Final analysis in the paper shares R being ahead in comparison for data analysis but Python having potential to catch up quickly and easily.
My thoughts …
My intent was to understand which of the programming language serves as an essential tool to demonstrate AI/ML capabilities. Looking at them, Python seems good enough for me to serve as AI/ML tool to start and probably conquer it.
Ammunition needed …
There are many python based libraries and packages that are generally used for statistical work. Below are few of them that would help in our data analysis exploration going ahead:
scipy – python-based ecosystem of open-source software for mathematics, science, and engineering.
cookbook – many statistical facilities, a collection of various user-contributed recipes already available
This is to get started with NumPy and try few concrete examples. NumPy (Numerical Python) are packages for numerical computation designed for efficient work on large data sets.
This is to get started with Python and try few concrete examples. It should help beginners to learn or others to do a quick revision without getting too deep.
